Speech by Federal President Horst Köhler at the Conference “Demographic Change”, Berlin, 6 December 2005
I.
Good evening and welcome! I am very pleased to be here and look forward to our discussion and cooperation.
The topic of our conference is, in essence, the future. We all know: the future is by its nature open. That is what makes our topic so interesting. Predictions about the future are constantly made—and constantly revised. Yet one thing is certain: we can shape the future, for better or worse. Furthermore, it is clear that we have often influenced it without being fully aware of it.
The future is to a significant degree made up of what we have done—or failed to do—in the past, both as individuals and as a society.
We Germans have influenced the future of our country by having significantly fewer children in the past thirty years than in previous decades. This has already changed our present: fewer children play on the playgrounds, and laughter is heard less often in pedestrian zones. But that is just the beginning.
II.
In numerical terms: since the early 1970s, each generation of Germans has been roughly one-third smaller than the generation before. At the same time, we are living longer. On average, we live about four years longer than our parents; and our children—if we have them—will live an additional four years beyond that. Life expectancy today is roughly 30 years higher than it was 100 years ago.
If birth rates remained constant, life expectancy continued to rise as it has until now, and immigration suddenly stopped, by the end of this century Germany would have fewer than half the population it has today. Realistically, the population will not fall quite that far because of continued immigration; yet even sustained levels of immigration will only slow—not stop—the decline.
While populations in parts of Africa and the Arab world could nearly double to 2050, Germany’s population is projected to shrink and age. The effects of this change will not hit all regions equally or at the same pace. Cities in eastern Germany such as Halle and Chemnitz—along with western cities like Bremerhaven and Gelsenkirchen—are already losing many residents. Kindergartens and schools close, libraries and theaters shut their doors, bus lines are cut, and businesses struggle to find qualified workers.
At the same time, in some major cities a growing share of the population—and soon about 50 percent of those under 40—will be people who themselves or whose parents immigrated from abroad.
Today, for every 100 people of working age there are 44 retirees and pensioners who depend on them. By 2050, 100 working-age people are projected to support about 80 retirees, and the number of very elderly people will likely triple. Conversely, missing children—the ones who were not born—will not be customers, will not need housing, will not travel, and will not contribute as consumers to the economy.
III.
Demographic change will affect each and every one of us. But it is also important to recognize: we are not powerless in the face of it. We have tools to shape our future, and we must use them—because we owe it to future generations.
But first we must ask ourselves fundamental questions: How do we envision the future of our country 20 or 50 years from now? How will we live? How do we want to live? Should we rely largely on society’s own self-regulating forces—or should we consider resetting certain directions? What options are open to us?
These are questions that deserve open and unbiased discussion—not only at this conference but throughout Germany.
IV.
Understanding what is happening, dealing with its consequences, and developing actionable options for the future: these are three major challenges for our nation and for all of us here today.
Perhaps the first question is whether the data we have is adequate to grasp the changes ahead. Are our statistics sufficient? Do we need more precise surveys, deeper samples, or even a new census?
We want to understand the complex consequences that demographic change has for every area of society: for businesses, for schools and universities, for research. We want to know how it will change the face of our cities and landscapes, who it will affect, and how.
Particularly pressing is the question: What does it mean for a society when fewer children are born? It is often said: “A society without children is a society without a future.” Children are naturally curious, eager to learn, and full of confidence. But does fewer children automatically mean less innovation, less openness to new ideas, or greater fear of the future? Not necessarily. Older societies can remain open and innovative.
The experience and wisdom of older citizens are valuable in many contexts. We must ensure that what older people have accumulated—socially, intellectually, and professionally—remains accessible to younger generations at a time when society faces many adjustments and transformations.
I therefore believe it is long overdue that we think about what we can do to combat age discrimination in the labor market, to which so many people feel exposed. We must also think carefully about how we will ensure care and support for an increasing number of elderly people who may no longer be able to look after themselves and who have no family members who can care for them.
During my travels through Germany, I have encountered heartening examples. I have seen people from very different backgrounds living together in positive communities—people who are already responding constructively to the challenges of demographic change. These include, for example, “multi-generation houses,” where the elderly and the young live together under one roof and provide mutual support. And I have met people who, moved by the needs of others, have initiated civic projects with great commitment. In these places, I often encounter a warmth and vitality that are truly impressive. We can learn a great deal from such examples.
However, there are challenges we can only solve collectively.
We must ask how we can sustainably secure our social systems so that an increasingly larger number of older people can live with dignity, without placing an excessive burden on younger generations. And we must consider how young families can be better supported in reconciling work and family life—so that young women and men can shape their lives in a self-determined way.
In this context, I believe one thing is crucial: we must not spend less on education. Quite the opposite. In a society in which fewer children are born, it becomes even more important that every child receives the best possible education. We cannot afford to waste talent. Each child counts—and not only economically.
And we must ensure that those who want to have children do not feel forced to choose between family and career. This is not about creating new illusions, but about genuine opportunities. It is about allowing people to live in accordance with their desires, abilities, and responsibilities.
At the same time, I believe that children enrich life immeasurably. They are a gift. And they remind us that life continues. Children broaden our view, inspire creativity, and give us courage. How can we design our society so that it again becomes easier to choose to have children?
We must also take seriously the question of whether families today are sufficiently supported and appreciated. I believe there is a great deal we can do here—politically, socially, and personally. Children need parents, but parents also need a supportive environment. Family-friendly structures in workplaces and communities benefit us all.
V.
The tasks ahead are substantial. But when I look at this room, I am not discouraged. I am convinced that we will not find fully satisfactory answers to every question today. But I am equally convinced that we can take important steps—and that this will already be a major achievement.
We possess many of the prerequisites we need. We have reliable knowledge and good institutions. We have people with experience, creativity, and common sense. Above all, we have examples that prove solutions exist—even if they have not yet been widely implemented.
I therefore hope not only for thoughtful analysis but also for shared commitment. Working on demographic change means working on our own future. It concerns how we want to live, who will care for us when we grow old, and what kind of society we want to pass on. We need both reason and imagination. And we need the courage to make decisions that reach far beyond the present.
I believe we have the chance not only to draw on our minds and resources, but also on our hearts. That gives the discussion depth. Together, we must ensure that our actions today bear fruit tomorrow and in decades to come.
I hope that this Forum on Demography will make a valuable contribution—today, but also in the years ahead. And I thank the Bertelsmann Foundation and our hosts from the state of Baden-Württemberg for their support and hospitality.
Thank you for your attention.
I would like to conclude with an African proverb that fits our discussion well:
“The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now.”
Quelle: www.bundespraesident.de
